September 22, 2021

The ZiPS Trade Deadline Reshuffle (FanGraphs)

It’s sad to say farewell to what I think was the best trade deadline in the years I’ve been covering baseball, but at least there’s still an autopsy to do! With the league moving to a single trade deadline after eliminating the August waiver-trade shenanigans, this was the last, best opportunity for teams to make changes as we head into the season’s closing chapters.

So who won, who lost, and who finished in the murky middle? To aid us in answering those questions, I ran two sets of ZiPS projections. First, I ran the projections as of Monday morning with each team’s post-deadline roster. Then I ran ZiPS again with today’s standings and current injuries, but having undone all the additions over the two weeks before the trade deadline (including differences in WAR between players). I then compared the pre- and post-deadline projections. Some differences surprised me. Others … did not.

ZiPS Playoff Probabilities – Trade Deadline

Team Div% Before Div% After Chg Playoff% Before Playoff% After Chg WS Win% Before WS Win% Chg%
New York Yankees 5.8% 8.8% 3.0% 36.4% 45.1% 8.7% 2.3% 3.0% 0.8%
Atlanta Braves 10.9% 16.8% 5.9% 11.4% 18.1% 6.7% 0.7% 1.1% 0.4%

Click here to read the whole article at FanGraphs